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PHEVs release almost five times more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs emit only 19% less CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, according to research conducted by a non-profit organization. This contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in pollution.

Analysts studied data from onboard energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team found that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are increasing, while official emissions are falling,” stated a senior researcher involved in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles travelled in battery power compared to overall distance. The team determined that just 27% of driving was done in EV mode, while official assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution levels were well above official estimates. This occurred because EV motors were not strong enough to function independently, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output enabled four large carmaker companies to escape more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with EU average fleet CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would spend about €500 extra annually in running costs than is estimated under laboratory conditions.

“The bold claims that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the truth,” stated a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and running costs.”

Policy Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political discussions as automakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A planned ban on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Several high-level politicians have suggested PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” option to include in the legislation.

One independent energy economics specialist, who was unaffiliated with the research, called the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was too little data to properly assess real-world emissions.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert said. “All policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost care and in the light of that data.”